Shadow

Today, as the sun shone through the fainted glass windows, I saw you. Moving around with
me, and as I do, you become my foremost friend.

When I embrace light in those unknown, untread paths, I embrace you. You are the one who
stands as a testimony to me, my emotions, my criticism and my praise. Mute and liked by all
for you don’t reply to the chiding, people seek you more than me.

Talking to you, and discovering you as a part and pal of mine has been quite an experience in
itself. Every morning and every night, you silently convey the message of happiness and
bonhomie to me. The conversation remains incomplete and unending, on from dawn to dusk.

You leave me never, in gloom or glam. Going on this path of life, hand in hand, we shall
achieve and move from milestones to success clinging to each other.

Endorsing Advertisements

Readingthisarticleisdoneatpersonalrisk.Theauthorisnotresponsibleforanyharmcausedtothereaderontheba
sisofreadingofthisarticle.Itisthessolechoiceofthereadertogothroughthisandhe/shehasnotbeenforcedbyany
personrelatedtotheauthordirectly/indirectlyintoreadingthis.

Understood the statement?

No?

But, how could you understand the Mutual Fund Investment statement, and not recognize a peer of it?

Welcome, friends, to the sensational world of advertisements,

As I advertise the advertisements!

Today’s new sensation – the advertisements, a part of deception row undertaken by the People’s
Popular Party, where they earn lakhs and crores in the name of a brand you use, and they discard for
your usage. Don’t worry, it is the way, you are being swindled by the swines since the times of Papyrus
of Egypt, or the oriental drummers in the squares squaring you off.

As we go from one level of hypocrisy, and veil to another, so do the advertisements of ours. From the
tall claims of detergents to whiten our clothes (read, bleach), to the taller ones of the fairness creams to
make the dusky ones fair. We move from the cool talc of one superstar to the gyno-magnetic
deodorants of another. Lost are the reasons, we destine and decide to let us qualify as literate idiots.

Following the herd started by the herdsman, who is nowhere to be seen now, we go on a cannibalistic
streak. And, the herdsman, enclosed in his stardom enclosure enjoys the best and selected products of
quality projected in the endorsed products of his. Yet, every other time we decide not to be deceived
again, only to fall into the snares of delusion all over again.

Everyone becomes a scientist. Experimenting, as they say, with one product for a month, and then the
other, and the cycle goes on until they shroud their beautiful natural coat with a cloak, absurd enough
not to be commented on. Hardly do I understand the necessity of that gel for the hair, or that cream for
the face. Do we hate ourselves so much that we need to wear make-up and show-up?

Wonder is in the ideas promoted by the advertisements; every car enjoys the numero uno spot, that
stars would barge into the privacy of your toilet seat and show you that if you don’t use their toilet
cleaners, the state is shit, and much more. Even sanitary napkins are overrated with the menstrual
cycles being the highlight. Starting from the blue liquid shedding, to the winning of reality shows,
competitions based on using a particular brand.

Such has become the state of advertisements, that they have become initiators for channel change,
rather than actually showing off their products. Gone are the days, when advertisements stood for half a
minute showing the lozenges, or the biscuit. Today, more than reality show, brand show is more. Going over the moon, for the products, and having them endorsed by people nowhere linked to them has become the mantra.

Best part of advertisements is the humour value presented in them. Starting from politics to satire of
yours, they give you or you have their criticism done. Yes, knowledge also dwells in the realms of
advertisements. In the form of the Life Insurance policies, some ideas are given, while most remain out
of sight to deceive you. And, then there are these mutual fund statements spoken at a rate faster than
you can actually hear them, did you ever think they wanted you to hear about it?

As the dissection comes to an end, I stand at the conclusion of not being able to surmise the advertising
policies of now. They are too erratic, too colourful and too sweet. They sell as if they are the only
sellers, and deceive as if it is their birth-right. Goes on this drama of deception, and advertising, and we
the mute spectators who don’t mute the speakers’ advertising long to stay long in this racket of
ephemeral eternity.

Doing it Bayes’ way!

I stand at the fork of decisions, and think how far I can see beyond the undergrowth. Sadly, my eyes fail
before the expanse of the horizon or the undergrowths veil my mind. But, wait, there comes my friend –
Thomas Bayes – and I suppose he can handle this with his strange play of numbers.

Welcome to Bayesian Statistics, dear friends!

When less is known of the matter in question, but more is required of the answer to supply, Bayes solves
where Frequentist methods fail to apply. Too much of jargon, eh! Fine, I will simplify that for you.
When we talk of a dependent variable’s variance in the data of the future, but we have less data of the
past to exactly predict it, or less of independent variables to analyze the situation, we use Bayesian
Statistics. It uses the statistical history of the independent variables and individually acts on them to
predict the further changes in the dependent variable. For example, I need to do some background check
on a person, but I don’t know much of his past or a large number of friends. So, in this case, I go for a
check of his friends’ background checks from the day of his being in relation with them, and by this I
make a probable forecast of how the person would be in the days to come.

Coming to the technical side, Bayesian statistics involves an axiomatic approach to a statistical question.
It is an interpretation of probability as a ‘rational, conditional measure of uncertainty’. With objective
methods available to analyze several situations, it is possible to handle seemingly incoherent scientific
hypotheses in an assembled manner of analysis using Bayesian Statistics, while this possibility cannot
even be thought of in Frequentist Statistics.

Sometimes, Bayesian Statistics methods are referred to be ‘probabilities of probabilities’ corresponding to
the mathematics style followed in its usage. Further, the mathematics involved in it is dynamic in nature,
and adjusts itself to the changes in the data-set. Bayesian methods in a way reduce statistical inference to
problems in probability theory, and serve to prove the point stated either by logical justification or by
proving the logical inconsistency of others.

Apart from the mathematics involved in Bayesian Statistics, a set of scholars work on the non-calculative
section based on the ‘degrees of belief’. This section analyzes an event in a manner of how many people
talk of it, how they talk of it (qualitative), what is the context that they talk of, etc. An equivocal situation
arises in the accuracy of this method, and application of this in real-time situations is hence restricted.
With the prior information and limited indirect knowledge of the variable, Bayesian Statistics helps in the
analysis. It is dynamic in the prediction of the results, and works in accordance to the trends of the
independent variables. This ability of Bayesian Statistics to adapt to the changes in the situation makes it
more resourceful.

Coming to the field of applications, we shall be surrounded by many, but what about money rather than
many. Yes, my friends, you read it right. Bayesian Statistics is the greatest concept of the money-printing
machine known as the Stock Market. Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, AOS, you name it and they
use it. The use of Bayesian Statistics outnumbers the rate of success of any other method to predict the
market. So fluid, so dynamic, so uncertainly certain it is – that mind trusts it for money.

In reality, we use this form of prediction every moment in life, weighing one situation to another, and
thinking of others’ remarks and how they would have done. So, with a crude form of Bayesian Statistics
running in our minds and helping us understanding things around us, we walk unknown yet well-known
to this mathematical concept.